The study uses data from the All of Us Program which uses a validated 2 step question. You can see in table 1 a substantial proportion of binary transgender people chose man or woman.
I hope Fire and others improve how they ask this question in the future
Either way this movement will eventually have a massive crash.📉
An anti-scientific anti-reality movement built on a fetish in order to justify the fetish their medicalizing children and young adults which leads to medical malpractice and fraud.
Even if we accept the data as true, where does the inference come from?
Even if there is a decline in the number of people "identifying as trans," why does that imply "the end of trans"? I don't get it.
This entire phenomenon was always a small-minority view imposed by force on a majority that never supported it or approved if it. The majority had no say at all... anyone who resisted got cancelled or lost their job.
Why should it matter that the tiny subset of people involved in it is... getting tinier?
Just to note Erin's piece criticizing your work makes a claim that Gallup polling shows an increase, not decrease in trans identification. However, she must have been just looking at the LGBTQ+ total numbers. When looking at Gen Z adult trans identification numbers, they show a peak in 2023.
2022 ... 1.9%
2023 ... 2.8%
2024 ... 2.4%
From their reporting, it is unclear if this is a reduction in Gen Z trans identification or an inclusion of younger Gen Z who identify trans less.
Delusional people don’t answer surveys in manners which contradict the delusion.
I’m afraid the assumptions flying through this are quite surprising and substantially wrong.
Trans men I know in particular insist on the classification of female, not non-binary, not queer. In fact, identification of other than female is an anathema due to the insistence (persistence, consistence) of delusional belief and because the compulsive need to hide actual sex.
One isn’t delusional “I’m nonbinary”. One is delusional, being male, and insisting on being female.
“Nonbinary” is a current term for a range of terms which have been used historically to indicate “androgyny”. Androgyny has a cultural cycle of 15-20 years.
Gender-bender, androgyny, gender fuck, genderqueer, flambuoyant, dandy (quite old)… the Beatles were considered gender-bending!
You’ve merely picked up a signal that this generations attempt at sexual ambiguity is on the decline.
“Nonbinary” is not a stepping stone to full-blown trans delusion.
Imagine a 50-year-old man suddenly declaring he’s “nonbinary”.
This was made too complicated. It should've been "Percentage of people who consider themselves an alternative gender other than gay or Lesbian(Since those alternative genders are long established)." Why is the term alternative gender not being used so we don't have to split hairs to find out if gender deviance is increasing or decreasing.
Note: I use deviance in the scientific sense, not the pejorative sense. The word retarded is also a scientific term that became a pejorative.
"the debate on X shows that twitter is not a sewer of misinformation and partisan claims." Run a quick survey to verify this datums. ;)
Have you considered the lightly confounding variable that neither children, nor their parents who make many surrogate decisions out of necessity, know how the child wants to be treated until that had been negotiated on the playground battlefield? And that if claiming to be or not be something will affect how someone is treated, they might just do or not do that very thing for that very reason?
I mean, just make a survey that asks simply "how would you like to be treated?" and give them the following checkbox flavorings:
As someone who has a penis
As someone who has a particular arrangement of chromosomes and hormones
As someone who wears dresses
As someone who picks on anyone who wears dresses
Like my parents treat other parents on Twitter
As the sum of my Instantaneous Telegram pixels
As a cool dude who doesn't afraid of anything
I assure you that the headline the next morning would read:
"A Sharp Spike in Illiteracy has Expert Parents Deeply..."
And we are all going to click on it even though we know the last word is "Concerned" but we simply must know for sure.
This study may address your skepticism about what response transgender men and women are likely to select on these surveys.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2807788
The study uses data from the All of Us Program which uses a validated 2 step question. You can see in table 1 a substantial proportion of binary transgender people chose man or woman.
I hope Fire and others improve how they ask this question in the future
Are these two cells what you are referring to? The 486 and 386 of the x-tabs of transgender men & transgender women with man or woman?
Yes
Either way this movement will eventually have a massive crash.📉
An anti-scientific anti-reality movement built on a fetish in order to justify the fetish their medicalizing children and young adults which leads to medical malpractice and fraud.
Even if we accept the data as true, where does the inference come from?
Even if there is a decline in the number of people "identifying as trans," why does that imply "the end of trans"? I don't get it.
This entire phenomenon was always a small-minority view imposed by force on a majority that never supported it or approved if it. The majority had no say at all... anyone who resisted got cancelled or lost their job.
Why should it matter that the tiny subset of people involved in it is... getting tinier?
I don't see what difference it makes.
Just to note Erin's piece criticizing your work makes a claim that Gallup polling shows an increase, not decrease in trans identification. However, she must have been just looking at the LGBTQ+ total numbers. When looking at Gen Z adult trans identification numbers, they show a peak in 2023.
2022 ... 1.9%
2023 ... 2.8%
2024 ... 2.4%
From their reporting, it is unclear if this is a reduction in Gen Z trans identification or an inclusion of younger Gen Z who identify trans less.
'not clearly a "free fall", but a decline.
I wanted to comment and ask her about this, but her substack only allows comments for paid subscribers.
Delusional people don’t answer surveys in manners which contradict the delusion.
I’m afraid the assumptions flying through this are quite surprising and substantially wrong.
Trans men I know in particular insist on the classification of female, not non-binary, not queer. In fact, identification of other than female is an anathema due to the insistence (persistence, consistence) of delusional belief and because the compulsive need to hide actual sex.
One isn’t delusional “I’m nonbinary”. One is delusional, being male, and insisting on being female.
“Nonbinary” is a current term for a range of terms which have been used historically to indicate “androgyny”. Androgyny has a cultural cycle of 15-20 years.
Gender-bender, androgyny, gender fuck, genderqueer, flambuoyant, dandy (quite old)… the Beatles were considered gender-bending!
You’ve merely picked up a signal that this generations attempt at sexual ambiguity is on the decline.
“Nonbinary” is not a stepping stone to full-blown trans delusion.
Imagine a 50-year-old man suddenly declaring he’s “nonbinary”.
Nope.
This was made too complicated. It should've been "Percentage of people who consider themselves an alternative gender other than gay or Lesbian(Since those alternative genders are long established)." Why is the term alternative gender not being used so we don't have to split hairs to find out if gender deviance is increasing or decreasing.
Note: I use deviance in the scientific sense, not the pejorative sense. The word retarded is also a scientific term that became a pejorative.
There should be a question mark after decreasing. Not a period.
YOU should be a question mark.
"the debate on X shows that twitter is not a sewer of misinformation and partisan claims." Run a quick survey to verify this datums. ;)
Have you considered the lightly confounding variable that neither children, nor their parents who make many surrogate decisions out of necessity, know how the child wants to be treated until that had been negotiated on the playground battlefield? And that if claiming to be or not be something will affect how someone is treated, they might just do or not do that very thing for that very reason?
I mean, just make a survey that asks simply "how would you like to be treated?" and give them the following checkbox flavorings:
As someone who has a penis
As someone who has a particular arrangement of chromosomes and hormones
As someone who wears dresses
As someone who picks on anyone who wears dresses
Like my parents treat other parents on Twitter
As the sum of my Instantaneous Telegram pixels
As a cool dude who doesn't afraid of anything
I assure you that the headline the next morning would read:
"A Sharp Spike in Illiteracy has Expert Parents Deeply..."
And we are all going to click on it even though we know the last word is "Concerned" but we simply must know for sure.